In March – April 2020, there were several almost overlapping events that are extremely important for the Russian economy. The fact that they almost coincided slightly blurs their effect and makes it difficult to analyze the causes and probable implications.
Many economic entities have not yet realized what awaits them. Many hope that “pseudo-quarantine” will be lifted and the situation will quickly normalize.
This is not true. A new, and very harsh reality is beginning for the Russian economy. The budget will have to be cut significantly and the national currency will have to be devalued. Citizens expect a significant drop in welfare, and business awaits reduction.
The outcome of the US presidential election in 2020 will determine not only the future energy policy of the United States, but will also have a significant impact on global energy, as well as on international policy in trade, climate protection and interstate relations.
Based on the analysis of the research of the Atlantic Council, an influential think tank, we can identify two plausible scenarios for the development of American energy and climate policy after the presidential election in November 2020. The main conclusion of experts is that a period of uncertainty regarding the future development strategy awaits American investors and owners of energy assets, and any of the election results will lead to significant changes in the domestic energy market and will affect the global competitive position of the United States.
With the economic slowdown, the Slovak government is focusing its efforts on combating the spread of the COVID-19 virus among the population to ensure the resumption of production and business activity in the country since mid-May 2020.
At present, the possible losses of the Slovak economy over the two months of quarantine measures are estimated at 5% of GDP or at least EUR 4 billion.
“The reaction of the oil market and the ruble exchange rate that has already taken place allows us to conclude that Russia’s GDP in 2020 will fall by 1.5-2%, and inflation will rise to 10-15%” – believes Sergey Khestanov, Russian economist, associate professor of ‘The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration‘, macroeconomic adviser to the general director of the Moscow investment company ‘Otkrytie Broker’.
The newly appointed European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, addressed the members of the Parliamentary Committee on Industry, Research and Energy and presented the basic principles of energy policy and work plans for 2020.
The Directorate-General for Energy (DG Ener), which she heads, is focused on the launch of a mechanism for a fair energy transition. The key task will be to assist in the preparation of national plans and monitor the progress of their implementation, coordinate the interaction of all available financial programs and assistance instruments for the rapid implementation of ambitious decarbonisation plans.
On March 2, 2020, a closed expert meeting called “Increasing Renewable Energy in Central Europe”, organized by the British Government and the COP26 Organizing Committee, was held at the Embassy of the United Kingdom in Vienna, Austria, at the level of representatives of the governments of Central and Eastern Europe, and was aimed at discussing aspects of closure of coal industries of Central and Eastern Europe within the framework of “energy transition”.
Sergey Khestanov – Russian economist, associate professor of ‘The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration’, macroeconomic adviser to the general director of the Moscow investment company ‘Otkrytie Broker’, believes that at the end of 2019 – the beginning of 2020 important factor that influences the economic cycle is powerfully manifested: the election campaign in the United States began. The current US president, D. Trump, is actively demonstrating a desire to be re-elected.
On January 14, 2020, the European Commission officially presented its plans to implement a special instrument to comprehensively support integrated policies aimed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, namely Just Transition Mechanism.
The European Commission estimates that during the 2021-2027 budget period Just Transition Mechanism should provide around EUR 100 billion of EU financial assistance in the form of grants and direct investment to the most vulnerable regions with a significant share of coal or heat generation. The Mechanism should also help attract at least EUR 1 trillion in investment from private institutions and national government programs to support energy transition.
The German companies Siemens and VDL Bus & Coach have begun testing new charging modular stations in conjunction with storage systems for heavy electrified vehicle fleets, which could become a new niche in the transport field and an important partner for transmission system operators. The use of V2G technology allows the fast charging of electrified heavy transport, as well as offers frequency balancing and maintenance services in the grid.
At the same time, US Navigant and eIQ Mobility offer creation and maintenance of parks of electric vehicles on a turn-key basis, which can bring a new type of company to the global transportation market that are capable of becoming effective partners for transmission system operators and capable to successfully implement electrification programs with minimal negative impact on the stability of power systems functioning.