Based on the results of Cepconsult’s participation in the international event of the Eurogas professional association – conference ‘Annual Conference: A Pathway to Solutions’ (Brussels, Belgium) on 21.03.2023, our experts analyzed some aspects of providing Slovakia with natural gas in the short term in the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Based on the results of the participation in the international event of the professional association Eurogas – conference ‘Annual Conference: A Pathway to Solutions’ (Brussels, Belgium) on 21.03.2023, our experts analysed some aspects of providing the European Union with natural gas in the short term in Russian-Ukrainian conditions war.

Expanding the strategic partnership in the energy sector between the EU and Azerbaijan, in particular, increasing the volume of gas supplies from the Caspian region within the so-called Southern Gas Corridor (South Caucasus Pipeline, SCP; Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, TANAP; Trans Adriatic Pipeline, TAP) is one of the main areas of activity of the European side in 2023 to solve the natural gas supply crisis.

The regulatory decisions of the Romanian government, aimed at providing gas to domestic consumers at a low regulated price, hinder further development, liberalization, increasing the liquidity of the gas market in the country, creating conditions for increased production and export of Romanian gas to neighboring markets.

The main topics of the international event of the Eurogas professional association – the conference “Czech Republic: The Energy Transition and the Role of Gas”, which took place on December 7, 2022 in Prague, were overcoming the deficit of the gas market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and using opportunities, arising in the conditions of the gas supply crisis.

In the context of the gas supply crisis, Argus experts consider the following three scenarios in the short term: optimistic – the transit of Russian gas continues both through Ukraine and Turkey with a total supply volume of 75 million cubic meters per day; basic – only Turkish transit continues with a volume of up to 38.5 million cubic meters per day; pessimistic – the supply of Russian gas through pipelines to Europe is completely stopped. Thus, the role of Russian gas remains crucial when experts forecast the European gas balance and price indicators of the energy market in the short term.

The main topic of the international event of the Energy Community – “17th  Gas Forum”, which took place on October 4-5, 2022 in Ljubljana, Slovenia, was the rebalancing of the European natural gas market in the post-Russian period. Representatives of EU government institutions and managers of leading gas industry companies take into account that in the short term there is no possibility to completely replace the import of Russian gas, and the lack of energy resources during 2023 may lead to significant negative consequences for the European industry.

The main topic of the international event organised by the Slovak Gas and Oil Association (SPNZ) – “Central European Gas Congress”, held on September 22-23 in Bratislava, was the crisis of natural gas supply to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).
In the event of a complete cessation of the supply of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine and the “Nord Stream” gas pipeline during the winter season of 2022/23, such countries as Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and the Czech Republic will experience an energy crisis with significant negative consequences in the economic and social spheres.

The unfavorable global economic situation and the high dependence of the Slovak economy on exports may cause an economic recession in Slovakia, which will last, according to preliminary estimates, until 2025. According to the Ministry of Finance of the SR, as of 01.07.22, according to the results of 2022, the country’s GDP is expected to grow by only 1.7% (with an average in the EU of 2.7%), and inflation is expected to be at least 12% (with an average in EU 8.3%). According to the results of 2021, the Slovak public debt increased to 63% of GDP.