On November 26th, 2018, the Ministry of Energy of Poland presented the Polish Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP2040 is attached), which identifies nuclear energy as one of the development priorities in connection with the requirement to abandon the use of coal and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions imposed by the EU within the framework of the EU-wide policy to combat climate change.
The document foresees decline in the share of coal-fired power generation in Poland by 50% in 2030 and by 22% in 2040 (coal-fired power generation currently stands at 80-84%).
Moreover, decommissioning of about 60 coal power stations, which are currently providing more than half of the power generation capacity in this segment, has been planned for period from 2020 to 2035. At the same time, the beginning of nuclear power generation is expected since 2033 (the construction of a 4.5 GW nuclear power plant is considered in Żarnowiec or Kopalino). Thus, by 2040, the share of renewable energy sources is expected to increase by 33%.
Based on the results of the analysis of the document, our experts concluded that achieving the goals of the new energy strategy of Poland by 2040 will be harmonized with the government policy of strengthening relations of Poland with the United States, this also foresees maximum convergence with the US in the field of energy security and corresponds to the position of Poland in implementation of the common energy and EU climate policy.
Poland has refused to reduce coal generation for a long time due to its high share in the national energy balance and the social sensitivity of employment issues in mining regions. However, further EU climate policy and the threat of rising greenhouse gas emission prices make Poland look for alternative options for the development of the energy sector and provide electricity to its own population and industry at affordable prices. Taking into account the aforementioned, the Polish government considers nuclear power as a priority sector and began to search for ways to build a nuclear power plant in Poland.
It should be noted that the current government of Poland is characterized by high pragmatism in shaping the policy of protecting national interests, in particular in the field of energy security of the country. The main features of this approach are: priority of national interests over pan-European ones (for example, there is a resistance to the construction of interconnecting infrastructure for synchronization of electric systems of the EU and the Baltic States); search for external sources of funding primarily in the EU (in particular, requirements to provide additional financial support for the closure of coal mines and generation); pressure on the EU’s governing bodies regarding decisions on the basics of common energy and climate policy (refusal to support the new electricity market legislation owing to the mentioned in it climate protection goals and the reform of national energy systems).
At the same time, the policy of the Polish government is aimed at maximizing the development of relations with the United States. Poland is trying to get as close as possible to the US in the energy sector, particularly, by increasing the supply of US liquefied natural gas through the terminal in Swinoujscie. Poland also holds consultations with the United States regarding the possible construction of a nuclear power plant on its own territory, with the aim of encouraging the presence of large American business in the country. Some agreements could have been made on November 8th, 2018, at the time of the visit of Rick Perry, US Secretary of State, during which negotiations were held with Piotr Naimski, Government Plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure.
On September 18th, 2018, nuclear energy was on the agenda of discussions between Andrzej Duda, the President of Poland, and Donald Trump, which had been preceded by the visit of Polish governmental delegation headed by Józef Sobolewski, the Director of Nuclear Energy Department, Ministry of Energy of Poland.
Experts estimate that, Poland seeks to develop a solution of share and the role of nuclear power in the national energy balance of the country and a public discussion of a new energy strategy, which envisages the construction of nuclear reactors, is currently being held. According to Professor Grzegorz Wrochna, one of the leading experts at the National Center for Nuclear Research in Poland, there is currently a clear understanding only of the technology needed – a high-temperature gas cooled reactors, HTGR or HTR, which has the highest safety index and can be located in close proximity to large industrial areas with high electricity consumption.
According to Professor Grzegorz Wrochna, one of the leading experts at the National Center for Nuclear Research in Poland, there is currently only a clear understanding of the technology needed – a high-temperature gas cooled reactors, HTGR or HTR, which has the highest safety index and can be located in close proximity to large industrial areas with high electricity consumption.
The work on renewal of the Polish Nuclear Power Program (PPEJ) is expected to continue after the government’s decision, which should be based on the reached agreements regarding the conditions of the NPP implementation.
At present, Poland conducted preliminary assessment of its own financial capabilities, with the result that there is obviously insufficient capital to cover project costs (according to various estimates – 40-80 billion PLN). As is known, the Polish government has a practice of involvement of large public and private energy companies in co-financing infrastructure projects, but as of the beginning of 2019 there is no information on the availability of an investor. At the same time, such American companies as General Electric or Duke Energy may be potential partners of Poland in the implementation of the NPP construction project and potential partners in implementation of the goals of the new energy strategy of the country as well.
