Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) findings analysis, it is expected that the US energy industry will further develop its shale oil and gas extraction, along with the increase in the share of renewable energy sources (RES) and wide introduction of energy-saving technologies in the country’s energy balance in 2019, and in the longer term.
The United States can become the leader in reducing CO2 emissions (by means of intensification of appropriate actions at the federal level), which will create conditions for stabilizing the level of energy consumption for the period up to 2050. In addition, within the specified period, the US will expand its supply of energy resources to foreign markets and will remain a net exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas.
Natural gas will retain its leading share in electricity production in the United States due to the preservation of profitable prices at Henry Hub’s, the key trading platform. It is expected that the share of natural gas may even increase from 34% in 2018 to 39% in 2050. Further refinement of technology and cheaper mining will ensure excess of supply over demand for gas on the domestic market and promote the export of fossil energy to European and Asian markets. At the same time, the decrease of gas prices in the Asian market and the improvement of the market situation for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected in the EU from 2020.
The current unstable situation regarding the supply of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine may be beneficial to the US, as this may lead to a greater interest in American gas, given the geopolitical risks in Europe.
In the outlook period, the share of RES, including individual hydro-power plants, will continue to grow in the USA from 18% in 2018 to 31% in 2050. The largest increase in capacity is expected due to the growth of wind and solar generation, while simultaneously increasing the possibilities of smoothing the volatility of consumption through systems of accumulation and demand management. The RES development is supported in the United States both by ordinary citizens and by energy companies, where the IT sector has set a steady trend towards 100% renewable energy through the financing of new power generation and energy purchasing agreements. In 2018, the contracted capacity of corporate contracts to acquire or hold shares in renewable energy projects hit a record of 6.33 GW and will continue to grow due to international corporations such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft.
More than 50 major American companies from the global ranking of Fortune 500 announced their goal of achieving 100% renewable energy in the medium-term energy balance.
Over 300 cities in the United States have committed themselves to reaching 100% of RES (at the beginning of 2018 there were only 50 cities). Six US cities among these (Aspen, CO; Burlington, VT; Georgetown, TX, Greensburg, KS; Kodiak, AK; Rockport, MO) have already met their goals of 100% renewable energy by different means, including the implementation of local RES projects, increase in purchases of RES under purchase agreements and issuance of so-called “green” certificates.
American energy companies have also started to quickly adapt to a public demand for RES by reviewing development plans, rejecting use of coal and introducing cutting-edge technologies to reduce carbon emissions. In February 2018, Consumers Energy (Michigan) announced 80% reduction in carbon emissions and a cessation of coal use. In May 2018 MidAmerican Energy, which serves 770,000 customers, announced that it would become the first US Company to ensure 100% needs of consumers in RES. In December 2018, Xcel Energy, one of the largest US companies with 3.6 million customers, was the first to commit to reducing carbon emissions by 100% by 2050.
Despite the policy of Trump, it is planned to further reduce the use of coal, primarily because of the decisions of the American companies themselves and local authorities. At present, RES is responsible for 17% of total electricity production. Forecasts suggest that wind and solar power along with storage and accumulation systems can meet about 80% of US energy needs by 2050. At the same time, the indicated above will boost exports of hydrocarbons to external markets and increase competition for consumers in Europe.
The main activity of the American energy industry over the next few years may be the technological restructuring of energy companies and local communal infrastructure in the US, in the interests of which hundreds of research institutes and corporate research centers continue to operate. Lithium battery recycling technology and new technologies for accumulation systems are also expected to be brought to the industry level, which, in turn, will increase the stock of electric vehicles and increase the electrification of transport and the integration of RES into the overall energy infrastructure.
Consequently, by 2050, the United States can become the leader in reducing CO2 emissions, which will create conditions for stabilizing the level of consumption of energy resources. In addition, within this period, the United States can expand energy supplies to external markets (primarily the EU and Asia) and will remain net exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas.
