Among the EU member states, Poland has the highest level of consumption of liquefied hydrocarbon gas for refueling cars (autogas). LPG is also used as a raw material in the petrochemical industry. In 2023, LPG consumption is expected at the level of 2.535 million tons, of which domestic production can provide up to 525 thousand tons (21%). Russia is the main supplier of energy to the Polish market: 75% (2019), 65% (2020), 60% (2021); deliveries are made by rail through the city of Brest, Belarus.
The Polish leadership is under pressure from representatives of industrial consumers and suppliers of LPG for the population, who predict a shortage of products and an increase in prices in the event of a ban on imports from Russia.
Currently, the Polish side is implementing measures to diversify LPG supplies, as a result of which it entered the gas markets of North-Western Europe and increased the level of imports by sea to 1 million tons in 2022. Sweden is the main supplier of LPG to the Polish sea terminals of Gdansk (with a capacity of 700,000 tons/year), Szczecin (300,000 tons/year), and Gdynia (250,000 tons/year), providing 688,000 tons or 27% of Poland’s consumption in 2022. Despite this, Russia is expected to remain the main supplier of LPG to Poland during 2023, supplying up to 51% of the country’s domestic needs.
Taking into account the limited infrastructural possibilities of marine supplies of LPG to the territory of Poland and the attractiveness of the price offer of the Russian side (supply from North-Western Europe is more expensive by USD 156 per ton of product), it is assumed that the position of the Polish government regarding a complete ban on the import of Russian hydrocarbons will not be independent. According to representatives of Polish petrochemical companies, in the event of the introduction of a ban on the import of Russian hydrocarbons at the EU level, the Polish side will demand the provision of relevant exceptions in the short term.
In particular, this position is justified by the need to complete measures to expand the capacity of LPG sea imports by putting into operation by the end of 2023 the terminal (with a capacity of 500,000 tons/year) of the Polish petrochemical company Grupa Azoty in the north-western Polish port of Police.
