During the rebalancing of the European natural gas market, Slovakia remains one of the EU countries most dependent on Russian supplies. While the share of Russian gas consumption in the EU decreased from 40 to 8% in 2022, the Slovak side achieved a reduction of this indicator only to 50% from the level of 85%.
The directions of diversification of gas sources declared by the government of the SR, in particular access to the global LNG market (via the Polish Świnoujście terminal, the Croatian FSRU Krk Island) and to the resources of the North Sea via the PL-SK interconnector and the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, currently do not provide reliable and stable supplies in the conditions of the pan-European energy crisis. The main source of gas supply for Slovakia remains Russia, and the only route is transit through the territory of Ukraine.
According to the director general of the Directorate General for Energy (DG ENER) of the European Commission D.Yu. Jørgensen (Ditte Juul Jørgensen), during 2023/24, the continuation of the annual reduction of gas consumption by 15% is expected for the member countries; implementation of mechanisms for accumulation of needs and joint purchase of gas European Energy Platform to reduce price volatility and retain industrial consumers in the EU; balancing the needs of energy security with the requirements of decarbonization of economies. The political position of the EU, formulated by the member of the European Parliament Jerzy Buzek, – “no business with Russia in the next 5-7 years”, also does not foresee an increase in the import of Russian gas to the EU.
Under these conditions, experts predict the following scenarios for solving the gas supply crisis in Slovakia during 2023/24:
1) Implementation of a special program for ensuring the energy and raw material needs of the SR in natural gas and supporting the profitability of the Slovak industry (metallurgical, chemical, automotive), which is characterized by a higher energy intensity than the European average, at the expense of EU funds. The Slovak side anticipates that the transit agreement concluded for the period 2019-2024 between NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, LLC Operator of GTS of Ukraine and Russian Gazprom will not be extended. This can have significant negative socio-economic consequences for the country and lead to the need to use EU crisis response mechanisms.
2) Restoration of Russian gas consumption in the SR within the framework of the contract valid until 2028 between the operator of the Slovak GTS Eustream and Gazprom Export LLC for the transportation of Russian gas through the interstate connection point on the border with Ukraine (Veľké Kapušany).
In the short term, the Slovak government will not be able to independently provide the country’s domestic needs for natural gas and will try to prevent significant socio-economic consequences at the expense of external support.
