“The Commission will propose accelerating the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports,” the EC chief said on social media, according to Reuters, adding that the conversation with Trump focused on strengthening joint efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia through additional measures. She also announced that the Commission would soon present a 19th package of sanctions targeting cryptocurrencies, banks and energy.
The European Union had originally set a target of ending purchases of Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028. This was confirmed by an EC spokesman on Monday (September 15). In early September, the EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen reiterated his commitment to the original date for the oil import ban.
The US has increased pressure on Europe in recent weeks to achieve an earlier exit from Russian sources, as well as to impose sanctions on India and China for their purchases of Russian energy. Donald Trump said on Sunday (September 14) that he was willing to impose tough sanctions on Russia, but only after NATO countries stop buying Russian oil and tighten their own sanctions regime. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a visit to Brussels last week that the EU could complete the exit from Russian gas within 12 months, perhaps even within six months. “I presented the idea that we could do it faster. On the U.S. side, we could do it faster, and I think it would be good if those deadlines were accelerated even further. I don’t know if that’s going to happen, but we discussed it,” Wright said after meeting Jorgensen. Asked by POLITICO whether countries like Hungary and Slovakia, which have opposed the European Commission’s efforts to phase out Russian gas imports, should end their relations with the Kremlin, Wright replied: “Absolutely.” “We want to replace all of the Russian gas. President Trump, America and all of the EU countries want to end the war between Russia and Ukraine,” Wright said. “The more we can limit Russia’s ability to finance this murderous war, the better for all of us. So the answer to your question is absolutely yes,” added the American minister, who also called on European countries to find alternatives to Russian nuclear energy, whether in the U.S. or in the EU itself.
Earlier this week, influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called on Slovakia and Hungary not to buy Russian oil if they do not want to face the consequences. In May, Graham declared his intention to impose tariffs of up to 500 percent on imports from countries that buy Russian energy raw materials. At the same time, he announced that he and about 60 other senators were preparing sanctions against all countries that purchase Russian energy.
The consequences of the increasingly frequently mentioned earlier departure from Russian supplies were discussed in his analysis by Mike Fulwood, a researcher at OIES, according to whom a ban on Russian gas imports from 2026 would bring a price shock, especially for Central and Eastern European countries. If the EU were to proceed as originally planned to leave on 1 January 2028, the global LNG market would be oversupplied, with new Black Sea production from Turkey and Romania also flowing into the region. The loss of Russian LNG has been largely offset by alternative supplies, mainly from the US, with costs being diverted from Asia. The European TTF reference price is expected to increase only slightly between 2028 and 2035, by an average of around €0.58/MWh, Fulwood estimated.
The halt to Russian pipeline supplies via the TurkStream pipeline would increase TTF prices by only €0.78/MWh, with a slightly larger increase of €1.01/MWh in Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, the analyst believes, adding that things are different if Russian imports to the EU are stopped as early as 2026 and the impact on TTF and Japanese spot prices is greater than in the case of a ban effective from 2028. Average TTF prices would increase by €1.56/MWh between 2026 and 2035 and spot prices in Japan by €1.24/MWh. However, the impact in 2026 and 2027 is much higher, just under €2.88/MWh for both TTF and spot prices in Japan, Fulwood calculated.
The reason for the greater impact – including on Asian prices – is twofold, he says. First, in 2026, the new wave of LNG supplies will just start, but the global market will still be relatively tight, while in 2028 the LNG wave will be in full swing and the market will be oversupplied. Second, as for Europe, additional production from Romania and Turkey will be available in 2028, while in 2026 it was not.
This is particularly important for Hungary and Slovakia, which would be would have to rely on supplies from Romania to balance the market in the absence of Russian pipeline gas, the OIES analyst believes. As a result, if the ban were to be implemented at the beginning of 2026, prices in Hungary (+ Slovakia and Austria) would increase dramatically in 2026, by around €23.11/MWh above the reference case. Prices in Austria, Hungary and Slovakia would thus reach more than €57.79/MWh in 2026.
However, according to Fulwood, prices will not only increase in these three countries and the impact will be much wider. Prices in Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland could exceed €52.01/MWh.
Conversely, in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France and Portugal, prices are expected to be around €31.78/MWh, as well as in Greece, Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Croatia. These are countries that have direct access to LNG imports or neighboring markets.
